MOT prognosis registry — what happened after each certificate line
Last updated · OBDCode UK editorial
By fuel at the 2024 test
Petrol and diesel are different faults. Each row is that fuel only. It is not the all-fuels same-item rate already on this page. The not-tested gap is percentage points versus other cars of the same fuel that did not fail on this wording.
Scroll horizontally to read every fuel column.
| Fuel | Cars | Same-item fail | Not-tested gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | 192,397 | 15.4% (95% CI 15.3–15.6) | +15.6 pp |
| Diesel | 194,460 | 14.2% (95% CI 14.1–14.4) | +6.9 pp |
| Hybrid Electric (Clean) | 1,972 | 9.0% (95% CI 7.8–10.4) | +4.1 pp |
These figures are a statistical association from the national MOT extracts. They are not a prediction about an individual car, and we have not inspected any of the vehicles.
Two questions the registry answers
Ranked tables
Numbered rankings are published with a fixed inclusion rule and a named statistic. Each page states the method above the source line.
How the figures are calculated
The method is the same on every page in this registry. The ranking pages apply one extra inclusion cut, which they state. Wilson intervals, age-standardisation, and the suppression floors are written out on the methodology page, with the Python functions this site uses.
The compiled tables for edition 2026.1 are on the dataset page.
- Source: the DVSA anonymised MOT tests and results extracts for 2024 and 2025, Class 4 only, published under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
- The extracts carry a vehicle_id that stays the same across annual releases. That is what makes a follow-up possible. A single year’s file cannot reproduce these numbers.
- Index test: each vehicle’s earliest 2024 normal test (test type NT). Where a car was tested more than once that year, the earliest test is kept so the follow-up window is as long as possible.
- Advisory axis: the index test was a pass (result P or PRS) and carried advisory wording X. Outcome in 2025: failed on that same wording; failed for any reason; or not tested at all. The control group is 2024 passes that did not carry X.
- Failure axis: the index test recorded a failure for wording X. A car is counted once even if two reason-for-rejection codes print the same words. Outcome: the same vehicle failed on the same wording in 2025; failed for any reason; or was not tested at all. The control is every other Class 4 vehicle whose index test did not fail on X (other failures stay in the control). Gone is the not-tested gap: the percentage-point difference in the share never seen in 2025 versus that control. Cars not tested in 2025 stay in the denominator and count as not repeating.
- Wording, not code: several reason-for-rejection identifiers print the same words on the certificate. Those identifiers are pooled. The owner only ever sees the words.
- Publication floor: a rate is shown only where the cohort has at least 500 cars. Model splits need 200 cars. Age and mileage bands need 300 cars.
- Robustness: advisory and failure pages that have the figures also re-run the same-item fail rate and the not-retested gap on January–June 2024 tests only — failure-axis H1. A December 2024 test may not be due until 2026, which can look like the car vanished; the first-half window removes most of that censoring.
“Not tested again” is not a DVSA scrappage flag. It means that vehicle_id does not appear in the 2025 extract. A gap versus the control group is the public signal; it can also reflect export, a missed test, or a test that falls in 2026.
Every published advisory follow-up
190 certificate lines, each with a 2024 pass cohort of at least 500 cars. The same-item fail rate is the share that failed on that same line in 2025. The not-tested gap is percentage points versus cars that passed without the advisory.
Tyres
Scroll horizontally to read every advisory column.
| # | Certificate wording | Same-item fail | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Condition has a cut but not deep enough to reach the ply or cords | 4.4% (95% CI 4.3–4.4) | -1.8 pp | 301,660 |
| 2 | Tread depth worn close to legal limit/worn on edge | 3.2% (95% CI 3.2–3.2) | +2.0 pp | 3,822,709 |
| 3 | Valve stem slightly damaged | 2.4% (95% CI 2.1–2.8) | +1.8 pp | 8,463 |
| 4 | Condition slightly damaged/cracking or perishing | 1.7% (95% CI 1.7–1.7) | -1.0 pp | 1,939,529 |
| 5 | Condition slightly damaged | 1.0% (95% CI 1.0–1.1) | -0.6 pp | 155,933 |
| 6 | Condition wheel/tyre protruding beyond wheel arch | 0.16% (95% CI 0.0–0.9) | +10.5 pp | 624 |
| 7 | Condition fitted to a bus or coach is close to ten years old | 0% (95% CI 0.0–0.6) | +0.5 pp | 605 |
Brakes
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Suspension
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Non-component advisories
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Noise, emissions and leaks
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Body, chassis, structure
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Identification of the vehicle
Scroll horizontally to read every advisory column.
| # | Certificate wording | Same-item fail | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Registration plates deteriorated but not likely to be misread | 1.7% (95% CI 1.6–1.7) | +5.9 pp | 466,754 |
| 2 | Registration plates insecure but not likely to fall off | 0.82% (95% CI 0.7–1.0) | +4.2 pp | 11,664 |
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment
Scroll horizontally to read every advisory column.
Steering
Scroll horizontally to read every advisory column.
| # | Certificate wording | Same-item fail | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Track rod end ball joint has slight play | 12.7% (95% CI 12.6–12.8) | +9.9 pp | 234,897 |
| 2 | Drag link end ball joint has slight play | 2.2% (95% CI 1.9–2.5) | +11.3 pp | 8,318 |
| 3 | Other components has slight seepage from a component | 1.5% (95% CI 1.3–1.7) | +11.6 pp | 18,422 |
| 4 | Steering rack has slight free play detected at steering wheel | 1.2% (95% CI 1.0–1.3) | +10.9 pp | 27,995 |
| 5 | Pipes and hoses has slight seepage | 1.1% (95% CI 1.0–1.3) | +11.2 pp | 13,449 |
| 6 | Universal joint has slight wear or play | 0.89% (95% CI 0.7–1.1) | +4.8 pp | 6,616 |
| 7 | Steering arm deformed but serviceable | 0.88% (95% CI 0.4–2.0) | +12.2 pp | 570 |
| 8 | Rams has slight seepage from a joint | 0.87% (95% CI 0.5–1.4) | +13.2 pp | 1,958 |
| 9 | Operation slightly rough | 0.79% (95% CI 0.5–1.2) | +7.3 pp | 3,042 |
| 10 | Steering box slight play between sector shaft and the drop arm | 0.59% (95% CI 0.2–1.7) | +14.0 pp | 507 |
| 11 | Steering box has slight free play detected at steering wheel | 0.57% (95% CI 0.4–0.9) | +16.2 pp | 3,885 |
| 12 | Pipes and hoses slightly corroded | 0.42% (95% CI 0.3–0.5) | +5.9 pp | 13,098 |
| 13 | Pump has slight seepage | 0.42% (95% CI 0.3–0.7) | +14.1 pp | 3,601 |
| 14 | Steering column top bearing slightly worn | 0.31% (95% CI 0.2–0.5) | +6.0 pp | 4,812 |
| 15 | Track rod end slightly misaligned | 0.25% (95% CI 0.1–0.7) | +15.7 pp | 1,188 |
| 16 | Pipes and hoses slightly damaged | 0.19% (95% CI 0.0–1.1) | +13.3 pp | 529 |
| 17 | Steering box has seepage | 0% (95% CI 0.0–0.2) | +13.8 pp | 2,511 |
| 18 | Operation close to minimum mark | 0% (95% CI 0.0–0.2) | +5.7 pp | 1,705 |
Road Wheels
Scroll horizontally to read every advisory column.
| # | Certificate wording | Same-item fail | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Condition slightly distorted | 0.52% (95% CI 0.5–0.6) | +1.1 pp | 163,219 |
Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems
Scroll horizontally to read every advisory column.
| # | Certificate wording | Same-item fail | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prescribed areas prescribed area is corroded but not considered excessive | 7.1% (95% CI 6.8–7.6) | +19.1 pp | 15,490 |
| 2 | SRS malfunction indicator lamp warning lamp does not illuminate | 4.2% (95% CI 3.7–4.7) | +18.8 pp | 5,951 |
| 3 | Condition buckle slightly damaged | 1.00% (95% CI 0.9–1.2) | +7.7 pp | 15,979 |
| 4 | Condition flexible stalk damaged | 0.36% (95% CI 0.2–0.7) | +7.7 pp | 1,965 |
| 5 | Condition webbing slightly damaged or frayed | 0% (95% CI 0.0–0.0) | +3.1 pp | 57,973 |
Visibility
Scroll horizontally to read every advisory column.
| # | Certificate wording | Same-item fail | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bonnet primary retaining device slightly deteriorated | 0.08% (95% CI 0.0–0.3) | +12.8 pp | 2,647 |
| 2 | Items removed from driver's view prior to test | 0.05% (95% CI 0.0–0.1) | -1.3 pp | 17,320 |
Every published repair-hold page
479 certificate lines, each with a 2024 fail cohort of at least 500 cars. The repeat rate is the share that failed on the same line again in 2025. The not-tested gap is percentage points versus cars that did not fail on that line.
Suspension
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Brakes
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Tyres
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Visibility
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Noise, emissions and leaks
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Body, chassis, structure
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Steering
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
| # | Certificate wording | Failed again | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Driver's airbag An airbag obviously inoperative | 3.2% (95% CI 2.6–4.0) | +14.2 pp | 2,532 |
| 2 | Condition Seat belt not functioning as intended or of an incorrect type | 2.9% (95% CI 2.7–3.2) | +10.4 pp | 23,774 |
| 3 | Condition Seat belt buckle missing, damaged or not functioning as intended | 2.5% (95% CI 2.4–2.7) | +9.1 pp | 38,700 |
| 4 | Condition Seat belt retractor not functioning as intended | 2.1% (95% CI 1.8–2.3) | +10.0 pp | 10,878 |
| 5 | Condition slightly damaged | 1.8% (95% CI 1.7–1.8) | +0.8 pp | 153,642 |
| 6 | Condition buckle slightly damaged | 0.81% (95% CI 0.6–1.2) | +10.2 pp | 3,575 |
| 7 | Attachment A seat belt anchorage loose | 0.79% (95% CI 0.4–1.4) | +16.2 pp | 1,267 |
| 8 | Attachment A seat belt anchorage likely to become detached in the event of a collision | 0.62% (95% CI 0.2–1.6) | +14.7 pp | 650 |
| 9 | Condition flexible stalk damaged | 0.51% (95% CI 0.2–1.2) | +11.6 pp | 976 |
| 10 | Condition webbing slightly damaged or frayed | 0% (95% CI 0.0–0.0) | +9.7 pp | 8,781 |
Exhaust, Fuel and Emissions
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
| # | Certificate wording | Failed again | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exhaust system has a minor leak of exhaust gases | 3.7% (95% CI 3.7–3.8) | +14.4 pp | 241,756 |
Seat Belts and Supplementary Restraint Systems
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
| # | Certificate wording | Failed again | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SRS Malfunction Indicator Lamp warning lamp does not illuminate | 11.4% (95% CI 11.2–11.5) | +14.0 pp | 130,095 |
| 2 | Prescribed areas prescribed area is corroded but not considered excessive | 5.5% (95% CI 5.4–5.7) | +29.1 pp | 58,367 |
| 3 | Requirements A statutory seat belt missing | 2.0% (95% CI 1.6–2.4) | +15.2 pp | 5,158 |
Identification of the vehicle
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
| # | Certificate wording | Failed again | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Registration plates Number plate does not conform to the specified requirements | 4.1% (95% CI 3.9–4.3) | +4.7 pp | 40,838 |
| 2 | Registration plates Number plate showing an incorrect registration | 1.3% (95% CI 0.9–1.9) | +4.6 pp | 2,226 |
| 3 | Registration plates deteriorated but not likely to be misread | 0.75% (95% CI 0.7–0.8) | +12.4 pp | 37,629 |
| 4 | Registration plates Number plate missing or so insecure that it is likely to fall off | 0.66% (95% CI 0.5–1.0) | +17.1 pp | 4,099 |
| 5 | Registration plates insecure but not likely to fall off | 0.56% (95% CI 0.4–0.8) | +12.1 pp | 7,468 |
| 6 | Registration plates Number plate inscription missing or illegible | 0.27% (95% CI 0.1–0.7) | +13.0 pp | 1,456 |
Road Wheels
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
| # | Certificate wording | Failed again | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Condition fractured at bridge over valve | 4.7% (95% CI 4.4–5.1) | +0.7 pp | 15,489 |
| 2 | Attachment A wheel with a loose or missing wheel nut, bolt or stud | 2.1% (95% CI 2.0–2.2) | +11.4 pp | 68,581 |
| 3 | Condition Any fracture or welding defect on a wheel | 1.9% (95% CI 1.3–2.9) | +2.9 pp | 1,234 |
| 4 | Spare wheel condition A spare wheel insecure in carrier | 1.2% (95% CI 0.7–2.1) | +12.7 pp | 1,065 |
| 5 | A spare wheel carrier fractured or insecure | 0.58% (95% CI 0.3–1.1) | +18.8 pp | 1,378 |
| 6 | Condition A wheel distorted or worn to the extent the wheel or tyre is likely to become detached | 0.42% (95% CI 0.1–1.2) | +15.9 pp | 719 |
| 7 | Attachment A wheel with more than one loose or missing wheel nut, bolt or stud | 0.34% (95% CI 0.2–0.6) | +15.0 pp | 4,642 |
| 8 | Condition a wheel and its fixings not compatible | 0.17% (95% CI 0.0–1.0) | +17.8 pp | 589 |
Lamps, Reflectors and Electrical Equipment
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
| # | Certificate wording | Failed again | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Side repeaters slightly discoloured | 1.2% (95% CI 1.1–1.4) | +14.8 pp | 14,173 |
| 2 | All position lamps slightly affected by the operation of another lamp | 0.55% (95% CI 0.2–1.3) | +16.6 pp | 902 |
Speedometer and speed limiter
Scroll horizontally to read every failure column.
| # | Certificate wording | Failed again | Not-tested gap | Cars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Speedometer not illuminated | 2.5% (95% CI 1.5–4.3) | +19.2 pp | 517 |
| 2 | Speedometer not working | 1.2% (95% CI 0.7–2.2) | +24.0 pp | 882 |
Methodology as set out above and on the methodology page. Source: DVSA Anonymised MOT tests and results, 2024 and 2025 extracts (Class 4). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Figures computed 2026-08-16T14:43:49Z.